MLB

Baseball Is Probably Shutting Down for the Winter. Here's the Fight, Explained.

Baseball Is Probably Shutting Down for the Winter. Here's the Fight, Explained.

The deal between baseball's owners and players expires on December 1, a lockout is expected right after, and this year's surprisingly scrappy final four makes the whole argument a little awkward.

The deal between baseball's owners and players expires on December 1, a lockout is expected right after, and this year's surprisingly scrappy final four makes the whole argument a little awkward.

Photo: David McElwee / Pexels

While you're enjoying the World Series, there's a big storm coming for baseball. The rulebook for how MLB's owners and players do business expires on Dec. 1. Basically everyone expects the owners to lock the players out right after that.

That sounds dramatic, and it kind of is. But it's also a little weird and, honestly, a little funny. Here's what's going on, no business degree needed.

Wait, what's a CBA?

The collective bargaining agreement (CBA) is the employment contract between the team owners and the players' union, the MLB Players Association. It covers everything from minimum salaries to how free agency works. The current one was signed March 10, 2022, and it runs out at 11:59 p.m. Eastern on Dec. 1. That's 9:59 p.m. Mountain.

Lockout vs. strike

Both are work stoppages. A strike is when the players refuse to play, like in 1994, when the World Series got cancelled. A lockout is when the owners won't let the players work. In a lockout, there are no trades and no free-agent signings, and players can't even talk to their team's trainers or doctors.

MLB already sent teams a memo with lockout etiquette, and some of it is great. According to The Athletic's reporting, as summarized by MLB Trade Rumors, team staff can still go to a player's wedding as long as they don't talk about work. Holiday cards and gifts, though, have to go out before Dec. 2. So if you're a GM, get your card shopping done early.

The big fight: a salary cap

A salary cap limits how much a team can spend on players. Baseball doesn't have one, and MLB's owners now want one, along with a floor, which is a minimum every team must spend. Back in May, the league proposed a $245.3 million ceiling and a $171.2 million floor. The players' union has made it clear a cap is a total non-starter, and talks have been stuck ever since, per ESPN's Jeff Passan.

The owners' argument is about fairness: big spenders like the Dodgers keep winning. Commissioner Rob Manfred has said "competitive balance" is "the core of what we're about."

And then October happened

This is the awkward part. Of the four teams that reached the league championship series, three were small-market teams with some of the lowest payrolls in the sport. According to Passan, using Ethan Hulihen's payroll tracker, the Dodgers' payroll was $340.6 million, plus $180.8 million in luxury tax. Compare that to Milwaukee ($143.7 million), Tampa Bay ($98.5 million) and Cleveland ($74.4 million). The Dodgers' tax bill alone was bigger than any of those three teams' full payrolls.

Then the Brewers swept the Dodgers. Now one of these budget-friendly teams is going to win the World Series. That doesn't settle the argument, since owners say one year is an outlier. But it does give the players a pretty good talking point.

What's next

The ALCS is tied 2-2 after Tampa Bay won Game 4 on Saturday night. Game 5 is Sunday at 3 p.m. MT in Cleveland. The World Series starts Friday, Oct. 23, in Milwaukee. Then comes Dec. 1. Opening Night 2027 is officially set for March 24, but Yahoo Sports' labor explainer put it bluntly: "There probably won't be baseball to watch." Enjoy October while it lasts.